July 17, 2016

Capabilities Statement

Differentiators

The Laboratory for Unconventional Conflict Analysis and Simulation is at the forefront of Computational Security Studies, a new domain dedicated to addressing the complex, ill-structured problems of the contemporary security environment. Rapid changes in technology, power configurations, and the overwhelming amount of information that constitute current security problems demand new and combined efforts. LUCAS uses historical, social scientific, and case study qualitative research for advanced computational modeling. Our modeling combines rich theoretical and empirical inputs to produce robust agent-based, system dynamic, dynamic social network, geographic information system, semantic and sentiment analysis models. Our recent and current projects include studies of the sister city relationship between Liepāja, Latvia and Bellevue, Washington; a social network analysis of the Shi’a Marja’iyya to forecast the successor of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani of Iraq; an analysis of the Iranian Al Quds Force and Hizb’allah in Northern Africa and Latin America, and a study on the impact of drought on civil wars. Our research is timely, interdisciplinary, and focused on the security dilemmas of the present and the future.

Core Competencies

LUCAS combines social scientific, quantitative, and computational methods to address the complex, ill-structured problems of the contemporary security environment.

We specialize in social scientific and quantitative research methods:

  • Complex Adaptive Systems Theory and Modeling
  • Political, Social, and Advanced Mathematical Theory
  • Grand Strategy
  • Social mobilization
  • Middle East Strategic Landscape
  • Latin American Strategic Landscape

We have expertise in the following types of analytical techniques:

  • Hermeneutics
  • Agent-based modeling
  • Dynamic social network analysis
  • Geospatial analysis
  • Semantic and sentiment analysis

LUCAS brings to bear an amazing talent pool of over a dozen trained researchers and modelers. Our people are well-trained and motivated to address the ill-structured and complex problems of computational security studies.

Our Leadership:

  • Dr. Tony Rivera, director, modeler, analyst, consultant, and subject matter expert in Iran, Middle East, political theory, computational security studies, and grand strategy 
  • James Wu

Further, LUCAS is well-positioned through partnerships with faculty, researchers, and practitioners in

  • The Triangle Institute for Security Studies
  • The Department of Political Science, Duke University
  • The Information Initiative at Duke (big data)
  • The Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University
  • The American Grand Strategy program at Duke University
  • U.S. Army Special Operations Command
  • The Joint Special Operations Master of Arts program
  • Lustick Consulting
  • The Computation Institute (University of Chicago)

For a list of clients and previous work see our Capability_Statement