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Resources and Resiliency

Resources and Resiliency

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DroughtNorth Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and nations in the Middle East are home to the most water-starved communities on the planet.  Changes in water access can threaten human security in general and humanitarian and economic stability in particular. Climate-driven strife can compound political and social instabilities, worsening conflict where it already occurs and increasing vulnerability to it elsewhere.  How have short-term changes in rainfall affected recent conflicts in this region, particularly in Syria and Egypt?

Control of the Nile’s water has been an ongoing point of tensions and diplomatic struggle in Egypt, Sudan, and nations in the Horn of Africa.  On a smaller scale, terrorists and warlords could exploit their control of water sources as leverage over local communities.  Access to water has been used to manipulate populations in areas including Syria, Palestine, Sudan, and the southern Arabian peninsula.  Understanding the specific ways that water scarcity has affected conflict in these areas could help strategists anticipate conflict intensifiers and vulnerabilities in these increasingly critical regions. The academic and strategic communities agree that climate change will likely affect U.S. interests.  Understanding these humanitarian and economic effects of water scarcity can add a tool in the strategists’ toolbox to anticipate instability.

The central hypothesis of this project is that various complex combinations of social and environmental conditions (which we identify) can create vulnerabilities to conflict when climate shocks occur.  In essence, climate shocks can trigger conflict in areas with the right combination of background conditions or series of unfortunate events.  We argue most of the literature does not pay enough attention to specifying the complexity of the relationships environmental conditions have with societies, their cultures, and their economic and political settings.

Mapping Hizb’allah and Al Quds

Mapping Hizb’allah and Al Quds

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Since September 11, 2001 the United States has expended virtually immeasurable power, wealth, and life in hot pursuit of Al Qaida and the many subsequent groups of that ilk that have since emerged. While that war was necessary it also afforded great cover to America’s other rivals/enemies. This research project examines the role of Hizb’allah and Iran’s Al Quds Force as a threat to the U.S. While we recognize that in Lebanon, Hizb’allah is a social service provider, militia, political party, and a virtual state within a state, this project examines Hizb’allah’s activities in the Greater Middle East, Africa, and Latin America and asks: is Hizb’allah a threat to the U.S.? It also seeks to examine the operational scope of Al Quds in establishing Hizb’allah cells, and Hizb’allah type organizations, throughout the world.

Fig. 1: Hizb’allah agent Ayman Joumaa and the Latin American Cartels

Social Movements and Conflict

Social Movements and Conflict

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Shi’a Islam is a cleric based religion. Each Shi’a selects a Marja, one worthy of emulation, and follows his teachings. These teachings range from spiritual matters; issues of family, marriage, property, and inheritance; to political matters. While there are several Marjas, the most influential Marja is Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani of Najaf, Iraq. Sistani is Iranian by birth but has lived in Najaf most of his life. He is of the “quietist” school, which means he believes clerics should guide their flock through spiritual advice and not be involved in politics. However, in 2004 when the Bush administration attempted to set up a confessional system of government that would have given virtually equal representation to Sunnis and Kurds, Sistani protested and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis took to the streets in protest. The Bush administration acceded to Sistani’s wishes and the constitution of Iraq is based on the principle of one person one vote. Sistani is 83 years old and in poor health. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been trying to set up his choice as Sistani’s successor. Grand Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi is 65 years old, has served for ten years as the head of Iran’s judiciary, and is considered a hard-liner. If Khamenei is successful in placing Shahroudi in this position, he will have great influence in Iraq and beyond.

This project examines two interrelated questions. First, what is the state of affairs with Sistani’s succession? And Second, what is the scope of the Marja’iyya system throughout the world? This project will proceed by examining the websites of the major clerics of Shi’a Islam and proceed to map their scope, influence, and financial support networks, since each Shi’a Muslim is required to pay 20% of their earnings to their Marja in religious taxes.

Technical Supplement for CAS

Technical Supplement for CAS

Technical Supplement for Course of Action Simulator

Luke A. Maier
Technical Paper 2014-1v2

 

Summary:

The Course of Action Simulator (CAS) was developed as an analytical and educational model of how two states adopt courses of action in response to threats, resource constraints, and complex priorities. This analytical tool was featured in several presentations and publications, and its purpose is to help explore how agent-based modeling can inform security studies. This technical paper outlines the model’s underlying calculations and algorithmic theory to make it as transparent as possible so that its limitations and strengths can be evaluated by users seeking to advance strategic modeling.

Modeling strategic decision-making as algorithmic behavior provides a disciplined, transparent, and potentially data-driven method for forecasting how threats evolve and how we can address them. Designing algorithms that articulate how states make security decisions can help U.S. strategists understand and forecast how other nations will react to changes in their security environment. Advancing algorithmic models of state behavior can provide valuable opportunities to capitalize on rapidly advancing computational power and to address the need for strategic-level simulation for national security research. The following sections: 1) introduce the model’s basis in international relations scholarship, 2) explain why a state’s selection of a course of action resembles algorithmic behavior, and 3) detail the calculations that CAS uses to represent states’ identities, power, and priorities in an agent-based model.

Citation: Maier, L. 2014. Technical Supplement for Course of Action Model. Technical Paper 2014- 1v2. Fort Bragg, NC: Laboratory for Unconventional Conflict Analysis and Simulation.

To read the full supplement, click here.